Adam Schiff vs. Steve Garvey for U.S. Senate- CalMatters

Democratic Rep. Adam Schiff and former Republican baseball star Steve Garvey will face off in November for California’s coveted U.S. Senate seat.

The race is a once-in-decades opportunity to replace the late Sen. Dianne Feinstein (and succeed interim Sen. Laphonza Butler). The winner in November — and Schiff starts with a big lead — could hold the job for decades to come.

With 52% of the estimated votes counted Wednesday night, Schiff had 33.1% and Garvey 32.6%, while Democratic Rep. Katie Porter trailed with 14% and Rep. Barbara Lee 7%. %. The AP declared Schiff the winner Tuesday night of a primary ticket, and then Garvey for second.

In the separate primaries that will last the final weeks of Feinstein’s term, Garvey narrowly leads Schiff starting Wednesday night.

The result was largely due to the impact of former President Donald Trump, voter turnout and campaign money.

The race is already the most expensive US Senate race in the history of the state. Schiff, a U.S. representative from Burbank who has consistently led in the polls, has spent a whopping $38 million ahead of the primary, outspending all of his and his opponents combined. ranking second among all Senate candidates on a national scale.

Schiff’s tremendous fundraising advantage made the race essentially a second-place contest for other candidates.

In recent months, that has been a fight between progressive Democratic firebrand Porter and Garvey, a former Los Angeles Dodgers star who jumped into the race in October and appears to be consolidating Republican voters. Lee, an Oakland Democrat known for her lone vote against the Afghanistan war in Congress and for her call for a permanent ceasefire in Gaza, has fallen behind in fundraising and in the polls.

But “historically low” projected turnout, especially among young voters, boosted Garvey’s chances and hurt Porter’s, according to one study. UC Berkeley Institute of Government Studies Survey released last week. One-third of likely primary voters are Republicans, the survey found.

As of Tuesday, more than 2.2 million voters over the age of 65 had cast their ballots, compared to about 347,000 voters between the ages of 18 and 34. According to Political Data, Inc.which tracks early ballot return data.

A tale of two races.

No Republican has won a statewide race since 2006. And for months, the Senate race was almost strictly a Democratic issue.

Schiff, Porter and Lee (ranked in that order) dominated the polls from the start, as pundits predicted a Democrat vs. Democrat showdown in November.

Then Garvey entered.

He rose in the polls in recent months, based almost exclusively on his name recognition. That was enough to put him on stage with the three Democrats in three statewide televised debates.

The campaign has promoted Garvey’s homeless tours in several large cities, as well as his trips to the southern border and the Salton Sea, but has proposed few specific policies. Garvey, who voted for Trump twice, also declined to say how he will vote in this presidential election.

But he didn’t need to do that to advance to the general election, some political strategists say.

“It’s almost like I’m in a completely different sport,” said Paul Mitchell, vice president of Political Data. “All he has to do is continue to be the Republican that’s been talked about in the race.”

Democrats, however, needed to stand out. Lee, Porter and Schiff, who had largely identical voting records, struggled to distinguish themselves from each other and reach different groups of voters. They have touted different policy positions and released detailed plans ahead of the primaries.

“The race for Democrats is to attract as many voters as possible,” Mitchell said.

Lee, who ranks a distant fourth in recent polls, has touted his progressive record and has often departed from Schiff and Porter on foreign policy. He has consistently advocated for a defense budget cut and has led on issues such as decriminalizing marijuana, impeaching Trump and repealing the law following the September attacks. 11 war authorization of terrorist attack.

Porter, known for her use of whiteboards at congressional hearings to question witnesses, described herself as a crusader against corporate interests, rejecting corporate PAC contributions for years. She promised to “shake up the Senate” and refused to request specific funding, a process by which members of Congress request federal dollars for their own districts.

And Schiff, who used to be a member of the centrist Blue Dog Coalition, has rebranded himself as a progressive and He changed his positions on many crime policies.. Unlike Porter and Lee, he refuses to call for a ceasefire in Gaza. He was also the only one who supported raising the debt ceiling last year to avoid default.

The Trump factor

Another reason Garvey hasn’t had to do much campaigning is because Schiff did it for him.

Schiff’s campaign has spent tens of millions of dollars on television ads portraying the race as a showdown between him and Garvey, boosting the Republican’s profile along the way. Schiff has aired ads on Fox News and sent mailers to Republican voters, considering Garvey “too conservative for California.”

While Trump has not intervened in the race, his name is frequently invoked in Schiff’s ads as Schiff attempts to link Garvey to the former president and the Make America Great Again movement. At an event in San Diego on Sunday, Schiff said Garvey is “in the extreme, extreme, extreme right field.”

Schiff has raised funds from Trump’s post on the former president’s social media platform. Social Truth calling him “Slimeball Adam ‘Shifty’ Schiff,” promoting his role in leading Trump’s first impeachment trial in 2020.

“He’s really taken advantage of being the most anti-Trump guy in the race,” said Jon Fleischman, a longtime Republican strategist and former executive director of the California Republican Party.

“If you ask someone, ‘What’s the first thing you know about Adam Schiff?’ He stood up to Donald Trump.”

Porter, who has criticized Schiff for using the tactic to knock her out of the primary for an easier victory in November, tried to take Republican votes away from Garvey by airing ads promoting Eric Early, a Republican lawyer who has lagged in the polls. His ads portray Early as the Republican who “We are proud to support Donald Trump.“

Schiff’s monetary advantage

Schiff, who entered the new year with $35 million on hand, was able to spend freely on Garvey’s behalf.

Porter missed the opportunity to spend his money early to keep Schiff’s cash advantage in check, Mitchell said. Instead, Porter has had to sell his fundraising lists to raise more cash in the final stretch of the primary. politician reported.

“Katie Porter was practically on the verge of running for second place on the ballot from the beginning, and that’s always a mistake,” Mitchell said.

In 2022, Goalkeeper spent 28 million dollars to narrowly fend off a challenge from Republican Scott Baugh, who is on the ballot again this year for his vacant congressional seat. If he hadn’t spent so much, the money he could have transferred to his Senate bid would have benefited her significantly, Fleischman said.

“The whole aspect of the U.S. Senate race would have been different,” he said.

Participation can be key to results

The low voter turnout so far also worked against Porter’s chances.

Mitchell projected a 30% voter turnout for today’s primary, which he said is significantly lower than the average 47% turnout in presidential primaries, but not surprising considering the rematch appears to be set between the President Joe Biden and Trump.

“It’s really about young people supporting Katie Porter,” Mitchell said. “Could we see a rush of young people at the end? Sure, and that’s what she would need.”

Porter said young people are “disheartened” and discouraged by the “big money” in the Senate race. He has attributed the lower turnout so far among Democrats and the high turnout among Republicans to Schiff’s ad campaign that elevated Garvey.

As of Monday, 100,000 fewer Democratic votes and 160,000 more Republican votes had been returned compared to the same point in the 2022 primary. according to political data.

“This is Schiff’s gift to the Republican Party in California and it is a big problem for us in this election, but also in the voting until November,” he said. he told reporters on Saturday after you have cast your vote.

Fleischman agreed. While Schiff’s push for Garvey may have increased his own chances of winning in November, he may come at a cost to Democrats, as more Republicans will be incentivized to vote in a showdown between Schiff and Garvey, he said.

“Garvey’s presence on the ballot will be very, very helpful (for Republicans) in all of these very competitive legislative races in California that will help choose who controls Congress,” he said.

“Without anything competitive statewide, you could see a gap in enthusiasm for Democrats.”