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The Houston Astros are at it again.
In January they signed closer Josh Hader, the best closer on the free agent market. Now, according to sources informed about their conversations, they are immersed in a serious search for left-hander Blake Snell, the best starter on the market.
Snell, 31, is believed to be seeking the same type of contract recently signed by two other Scott Boras clients, Cody Bellinger and Matt Chapman: a three-year contract with two opt-outs.
The Astros’ need to add another starting pitcher intensified Friday when José Urquidy left a minor league game after 43 pitches with right elbow soreness, according to manager Joe Espada.
Astros ace Justin Verlander will begin the season on the injured list with shoulder inflammation, but could return in mid-April. Two other Houston starters, Lance McCullers Jr. and Luis Garcia, are still recovering from elbow surgeries and are not expected to play until well after the All-Star break.
The question is whether Astros owner Jim Crane is willing to sign Snell for the $30 million to $32 million annual salary the pitcher is believed to be seeking. The New York Yankees and Los Angeles Angels have also been linked to Snell. But the Yankees must pay a 110 percent luxury tax on every dollar they spend, meaning Snell would cost them more than double his salary. The lack of state income taxes in Texas would be another advantage for the Astros.
A trade for Urquidy, who earns $3.75 million, could have created some financial flexibility for the Astros, who have repeatedly waived the pitcher in recent seasons. But with Urquidy’s physical status uncertain, the team almost certainly can’t move him now. And the list doesn’t include any other obvious salaries to move.
Snell would fit an obvious need for the Astros, not only for the present but also for the future. Verlander could become a free agent after this season if he does not pitch the 140 innings necessary to exercise his $35 million player option. Urquidy and Framber Valdez remain under club control for two more seasons.
The team’s financial flexibility could increase in the coming years: Third baseman Alex Bregman will hit the open market after this season, as will right fielder Kyle Tucker along with Valdez after 2025. But Houston is already projected to have the payroll biggest for the franchise’s Opening Day. history. With the signing of Hader, the club crossed the first threshold of the luxury tax for the second time during Crane’s tenure.
Like Hader, Snell turned down a qualifying offer. The addition of Hader cost the team its second pick in the 2024 MLB Draft, 63rd overall. A contract for Snell with an average annual value in the range he is believed to want would likely put the Astros $40 million over the first luxury tax threshold, moving their first-round pick back 10 spots in the draft, unless that the team falls among the top six.
If the Astros sign Snell, they must also lose their third- and sixth-highest picks, Nos. 102 and 193. For a team with one of the worst farm systems in baseball, and still reeling from a lack of first- and second round. in the two seasons since the sign-stealing scandal, it would be a high price to pay.
Crane, however, is the same owner who traded two of his top prospects, Drew Gilbert and Ryan Clifford, for Verlander at last season’s trade deadline. Hader’s contract was the largest free agent deal during Crane’s tenure. With Snell, the owner would be doubling down and upping the ante in the Astros’ competition with his biggest rival, the defending World Series champion Texas Rangers.
The Rangers struck out this week in their attempt to trade for right-hander Dylan Cease, who went from the Chicago White Sox to the San Diego Padres. Texas ownership has apparently prevented the front office from re-signing another of Boras’ clients, left-hander Jordan Montgomery, while the team’s future local television revenue is uncertain.
If Snell goes to the Astros, the plot will thicken. For Montgomery. For the Rangers. For the entire American League.
GO DEEPER
Are the Astros the right choice for Blake Snell?
(Top photo by Blake Snell: Sean M. Haffey/Getty Images)