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One of the best hitters in free agency agreed to an overnight deal as a center fielder. Cody Bellinger He has an agreement with the Cubs for three years and $80 million per ESPN’s Jeff Passan. According to Passan, the deal includes opt-outs after the 2024 and 2025 seasons. Passan adds that the deal is somewhat anticipated, as Bellinger will earn $30 million in 2024 and 2025 with a $20 million salary in 2026.
Bellinger returns to the Cubs after signing a one-year contract with the club last winter and having an excellent platform campaign. In 556 plate appearances, the 28-year-old hit .307/.356/.525 with 26 home runs and 20 stolen bases while splitting time between center field and first base for Chicago. That performance earned Bellinger a Silver Slugger Award and a top-10 finish in NL MVP voting and seemingly left him ready to cash in this winter with a big contract. MLBTR ranked Bellinger as the No. 2 free agent in this year’s class, behind only the two-way superstar. Shohei Ohtanipredicting a 12-year, $264 million deal for the outfielder on our annual list of MLB’s top 50 free agents.
As Bellinger’s offseason dragged on, it became clear that a $200 million-plus commitment would not be in the cards. In his recent email on Wednesday, MLBTR’s Tim Dierkes predicted a three-year, $90 million deal with a pair of opt-outs. While Bellinger entered the winter with many big-market clubs seemingly vying for his services, including the Giants, Yankees and Blue Jays, each turned in other directions throughout the month of December: San Francisco landed KBO star . Jung Hoo Lee to the patrol center, juan soto was sent to the Bronx to fill the left-handed void in their outfield mix, and the Blue Jays changed course after missing out Shohei Ohtani focus instead on smaller deals for players like Kevin Kiermaier and Isiah Kiner-Falefa. That left Bellinger with few clear suitors outside of the current Cubs, although his free agency continued into spring training as his camp awaited a long-term deal as the Cubs and president of baseball operations Jed Hoyer held firm. waiting for the market to come out. Ultimately, Chicago was rewarded for its patience, as the club will retain Bellinger’s services through at least the 2024 campaign in a relatively low-cost deal similar to the three-year, $105 million deal with Boras’ client Corporation. Carlos Correa He signed with the Twins two offseasons ago.
A number of factors beyond his relatively small number of suitors likely contributed to Bellinger signing a short-term contract. As excellent as he was in 2023, the slugger struggled mightily as he dealt with shoulder issues and a fractured fibula during the 2021 and ’22 seasons. Although he managed to take the field for 900 plate appearances across the two seasons, he hit a paltry .193/.256/.355 during that time, a far cry from the .273/.364/.567 slash line he entered. The 2021 season earned him Rookie of the Year and MVP honors in 2017 and 2019.
While Bellinger 
The strong and healthy 2023 campaign certainly helped quell concerns brought on by his dismal campaigns in the previous two seasons, a look at his advanced metrics reveals some cause for concern that the 28-year-old’s 2023 campaign may not be of the all sustainable. While Bellinger’s best batting average last season was backed by a career-low 15.6% strikeout rate, it was also backed by a .319 BABIP that eclipsed his career mark of .277 by enter the 2023 season by more than 40 points.
That jump in batted ball good fortune came despite the peripherals’ unusually low contact quality. By statistics transmission, Bellinger’s average exit velocity, barrel rate, and hard-hit percentage were well below average, ranking in the 22nd, 27th, and 10th percentile respectively among qualified major league players. Collectively, those peripheral numbers left Bellinger with an approximate league-average xwOBA of just .330 last year, 40 points below his excellent .370 wOBA. Between his pronounced struggles in recent seasons and the worrying peripherals underlying his return to form in 2023, it’s not a total surprise to see Bellinger land a short-term, opt-out-heavy deal that preserves flexibility rather than a lengthy deal. that maximizes the warranty.
Such a contract could set Bellinger up for a much more significant payday in the future. As MLBTR’s Steve Adams noted in his recent analysis of the possibility of a short-term deal for Bellinger, the slugger is unusually young for a free agent and, as such, may be especially suited for a short-term deal. If Bellinger can maintain a level of production similar to his 2023 rebound, he will be all but assured to opt out of the remaining two years and $50 million on his contract and return to free agency, where he would be promoting his 29-year-old age. season and not be hampered by the Qualifying Offer, which the Cubs extended to Bellinger this winter. Next year’s free agent class is also likely to benefit from additional certainty regarding the ongoing bankruptcy of Diamond Sports, which has impacted the television deals of some contenders such as the Rangers and Twins. Those clubs were mostly joined by big-spending clubs like the Padres and Mets, who faced exorbitant luxury tax bills last year and used this offseason as an opportunity to reset.
Meanwhile, Bellinger will return to Chicago, where he will immediately dramatically improve the club’s lineup and chances of contention in a crowded National League Central. Bellinger’s 134 wRC+ and .525 slugging percentage led all Cubs hitters with at least 100 trips to the plate last year, while he ranked fourth in terms of on-base percentage. The slugger also provides a much-needed left-handed bat to a lineup that complements the right-handed hitters in the lineup like Dansby Swanson, Seiya Suzuki, Christopher Moreland Nico Hoerner. In addition to providing the club’s lineup with potentially impactful offense, Bellinger’s versatility offers the Cubs flexibility as they look to add their young hitters to the major league lineup on a regular basis.
infielder michael busch He will likely begin the season as the club’s regular first baseman after the club acquired him from the Dodgers in a deal last month, leaving Bellinger to begin the season as the club’s everyday option in center field. That said, the best prospect Pete Crow-Armstrong he lurks after making his major league debut last September and sports 80-grade defense in center field. The club’s reunion with Bellinger takes pressure off Crow-Armstrong, who went hitless in 19 plate appearances during his cup of coffee last fall, to immediately produce at the major league level and allows the Cubs to continue his development. in Triple-A to open the year.
If Crow-Armstrong proves he’s ready to take on the day-to-day job in center at some point this season, Bellinger could move to a corner outfield spot, first base or even designated hitter depending on Crow-Armstrong’s health and production. rest of the lineup. One possibility for the Cubs would be for Busch or Morel to establish themselves as a capable defender at third base, allowing the other to handle designated hitter duties. In that case, Bellinger could move to first base and make room for Crow-Armstrong to get regular playing time in center, although that’s just one possible option for a Cubs team that could even reach the first round of 2023. Matt Shaw or top corner garden prospect Owen Caissie He will debut sometime this year after performing well in Double-A last season.
The reunion with Bellinger will likely serve as the culmination of an offseason in which Chicago also landed the lefty. Shota Imanaga and veteran relief arm Hector Neris in free agency. Club president Tom Ricketts recently indicated that the club was unlikely to exceed the Competitive Balance Tax threshold this winter, and ResourceList projects the club will have a payroll of $234 million in 2024 for CBT purposes, less than $3 million below the first threshold of $237 million. That means that a change of position would be almost mandatory for the club to make more additions this winter, barring an exchange that settles salaries in other parts of the squad.
Image courtesy of USA Today Sports.