Five Oscar races too close to call: Cillian Murphy, Paul Giamatti

Awards circuit column: All eyes on BAFTA and SAG to determine victors in several key races

The road to the Oscars is littered with praise from awards groups, but there are still uncertainties ahead. Honors are imminent from several industry bodies (DGA, PGA, BAFTA and SAG), all of which share AMPAS membership, setting the stage for potential surprises and perhaps more question marks. The biggest of all: Will the Academy go its own way or unanimously favor Christopher Nolan’s epic “Oppenheimer,” potentially setting a record for the most wins for a film to win best picture since “Slumdog Millionaire” scored eight in 2008? What is known is what is unknown, here’s a look at the races that are ever-changing as the big night approaches.

Read: Varieties Awards circuit for the latest Oscar predictions in all categories.

BEST ACTOR

Rounding out this category are five esteemed actors, each championing a compelling narrative. Paul Giamatti leads with his portrayal of a prickly but ultimately benevolent teacher in “The Holdovers,” buoyed by Golden Globe and Critics Choice awards. However, Cillian Murphy’s riveting performance in “Oppenheimer” as the brilliant mind behind the atomic bomb could dominate the night. And then there’s Bradley Cooper, frequently nominated for “Maestro,” who’s hoping for an overdue win after racking up 12 nominations in his career. If Netflix’s strong campaign is any indication, the streamer aims to turn the film’s seven accolades into wins.

ORIGINAL AND ADAPTED SCRIPT

The script battles continue to be incalculable, especially with the change in category of “Barbie” from original to adapted by the Academy. And the delay of the WGA Awards further confounds prediction efforts. The race for the original screenplay appears to be a showdown between the French courtroom drama “Anatomy of a Fall” and the heartwarming Christmas drama “The Holdovers.” The first won the Golden Globe (which brings together all screenplays), and that could be the only clue as to which film will prevail. Although “Barbie” is no longer a factor in this race, it was nominated for original screenplay at the CCA (where it won) and at the upcoming BAFTAs, where it could emerge victorious. If that happens, two questions will resonate in the minds of experts: What does the original win at the Oscars and, in the adapted race, can “Barbie” beat the film that takes the adapted BAFTA award? The adapted category has any number of results. It could be where Cord Jefferson’s satirical dramedy “American Fiction” is rewarded after taking home CCA. On the other hand, screenwriter Tony McNamara may get an overdue Oscar for “Poor Things” after a high-profile loss for “The Favorite.” And what about the possible “Oppenheimer” sweep that is brewing? Nolan could be the 11th person to achieve an Oscar hat trick, winning for film, director and screenplay.

PRODUCTION DESIGN AND COSTUME DESIGN

For the first time in two decades, five films – “Barbie,” “Killers of the Flower Moon,” “Napoleon,” “Oppenheimer” and “Poor Things” – are competing for both production and costume design. That historic alignment last occurred in 2003, when “The Lord of the Rings: The Return of the King” won both categories. “Barbie’s” vibrant settings and clever homages to her iconic doll have garnered praise, while “Poor Things” offers a tapestry of visual opulence, blending period elegance with futuristic fantasy, presenting a tight race between the two categories. The two categories of craftsmen are the rare ones that do not help the cause of better image. In five of the last 13 years, the same film won in both production and costumes: “Alice in Wonderland,” “The Great Gatsby,” “The Grand Budapest Hotel,” “Mad Max: Fury Road.” ” and “Black Panther.” that didn’t translate into a best picture trophy. In fact, in that same period, only one of the best picture winners won for production design (“The Shape of Water”) and only one won for costumes (“The Artist”). Aside from the always inscrutable short film categories, the success of your Oscar pool will likely depend on these races. May the best predictor win.

This week’s winner selections are below.

best image:
“Oppenheimer” (Universal Pictures) – Emma Thomas, Charles Roven and Christopher Nolan

Leader:
Christopher Nolan, “Oppenheimer” (Universal Pictures)

Actor:
Paul Giamatti, “The Holdovers” (Focus Features)

Actress:
Lily Gladstone, “The Flower Moon Killers” (Apple Original Movies)

Secondary actor:
Robert Downey Jr, “Oppenheimer” (Universal Pictures)

Supporting Actress:
Da’Vine Joy Randolph, “The Holdovers” (Focus Features)

Original screenplay:
“Anatomy of a Fall” (Neon) – Justine Triet, Arthur Harari

Adapted script:
“Oppenheimer” (Universal Pictures) – Christopher Nolan

Animated Feature:
“Spider-Man: Across the Spider-Verse” (Sony Pictures) – Kemp Powers, Justin K. Thompson, Phil Lord, Christopher Miller, Amy Pascal

Production design:
“Poor Things” (Searchlight Pictures) – Shona Heath, James Price, Szusza Mihalek

Cinematography:
“Oppenheimer” (Universal Pictures) – Hoyte van Hoytema

Costume Design:
“Poor People” (Searchlight Pictures) – Holly Waddington

Movie Editing:
“Oppenheimer” (Universal Pictures) – Jennifer Lame

Makeup and Hairdressing:
“Maestro” (Netflix) – Kazu Hiro, Kay Georgiou and Lori McCoy-Bell

Sound:
“Oppenheimer” (Universal Pictures) – Willie Burton, Richard King, Gary A. Rizzo and Kevin O’Connell

Visual effects:
“Godzilla: Minus One” (Toho) – Takashi Yamazaki, Kiyoko Shibuya, Masaki Takahashi and Tatsuji Nojima

Original score:
“Oppenheimer” (Universal Pictures) – Ludwig Göransson

Original song:
“Barbie” – “What was I made for?” by Billie Eilish and Finneas O’Connell

Documentary feature film:
“20 Days in Mariupol” (PBS) – Mstyslav Chernov, Michelle Mizner and Raney Aronson-Rath

International feature:
“The Zone of Interest” (A24) — United Kingdom

animated short:
“Letter to a Pig” (Miyu Distribution) – Tal Kantor and Amit R. Gicelter

Documentary short film:
“The Last Repair Shop” (LA Times Studios/Searchlight Pictures) – Ben Proudfoot and Kris Bowers

Live action short film:
“The Wonderful Story of Henry Sugar” (Netflix) – Wes Anderson and Steven Rales