Inflation remains stable at 5.09% in February compared to 5.1% in January | Latest news India | Top Vip News

​India’s benchmark inflation figure, as measured by the Consumer Price Index (CPI), remained stable between January and February. The headline retail inflation figure was 5.09% in February compared to the 5.1% figure in January 2024. The CPI figures for January and February, read with the recent reduction of $100 in LPG cylinder prices (this will be reflected in the March inflation figures) means that the CPI will be close to the RBI’s forecast of 5% for the quarter ending March 2024. The inflation figure of February is also in line with analysts’ forecasts. A Bloomberg survey of economists had projected this figure to be 5.05%.

Read here: Retail inflation almost unchanged at 5.09% in February versus 5.1% in January: government data

While the headline CPI figure is still above the RBI’s 4% target, core inflation, which measures the non-food and fuel portion of the CPI basket, fell to 3.37%, based on data from the Center for Monitoring Indian Economy (CMIE). . This is the lowest level of core inflation since November 2019 and suggests that the Indian economy is far from overheated at the moment.

To be sure, food inflation rose marginally from 8.3% in January to 8.6% in February. This is largely a reflection of a sharp jump in prices for eggs, fish and meat – the category saw inflation rise from 1.6% in January to 5.7% in February. To be sure, food inflation rose marginally from 8.3% in January to 8.7% in February. This is largely a reflection of a sharp jump in prices for eggs, fish and meat – the category saw inflation rise from 1.6% in January to 5.7% in February. Vegetable inflation also increased from 27.1% in January to 30.3% in February

While inflation for cereals and pulses has eased slightly from January levels, the future inflation outlook for these items will depend on the winter harvest. There are anecdotal reports that rains caused by western disturbances in parts of northern and northwestern India may have caused some damage to crops.

In another set of indicators published by the National Statistics Office (ONE), the Industrial Production Index for the month of January was slightly lower than analysts’ projections. At 3.8%, IIP growth in January was 30 basis points (a basis point is one-hundredth of a percentage point) lower than a Bloomberg forecast and also lower than the 4.25% figure for the month of December 2023. of more than three-quarters of the IIP basket, it grew by 3.2% in January compared to 4.5% in December 2023. While the latest IIP figures are in line with expectations that growth will lose some momentum in the quarter ending in March, caution should be taken in reading it as a sign of a big drop in economic momentum in the manufacturing sector. The manufacturing Purchasing Managers’ Index (PMI), another high-frequency indicator widely used by analysts, shows that the manufacturing sector actually gained economic momentum in January and February compared to December 2023 levels and remained in the zone of expansion.

Read here: Is India overestimating food inflation?

“CPI inflation remained stable at 5.1% in February. Food inflation increased moderately, but was offset by a continued slowdown in core and fuel inflation. We expect the RBI to start easing its policy from Q3/24, while awaiting further signals from food prices, benefiting from benign underlying inflation and robust growth,” said Rahul Bajoria, MD and chief economics officer at emerging markets Asia (ex-China), Barclays. .