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Sen. Mitch McConnell’s decision to step away from leadership at the end of the year has thrown Senate Republicans into a protracted and potentially disruptive nine-month battle to succeed him in the midst of a presidential race and a campaign for control of the chamber.
A contest that had been simmering in the background was suddenly thrust into the spotlight this week by Mr. McConnell. announcement earlier than expected that he would not seek to continue being the leader of his party. The contenders immediately began courting their colleagues for a chance to become their party’s first new face in the Senate in nearly two decades.
“There’s a lot of runway,” Sen. John Thune of South Dakota, the No. 2 Republican, said of the months ahead of the party’s first seriously contested leadership race since McConnell took office in 2007. “But it’s the what is it. So you just have to adapt.”
Congressional leadership races are the most internal of internal games on Capitol Hill, where secret ballot results are determined by personal relationships, grudges and who lawmakers see as the best choice for their own ambitions, as well as by serious political positions or the state of the institution. . The true electorate is not even known yet, as those voting for next year’s leader will include anyone who wins a seat in November, and exclude anyone who loses.
That reality was underscored Friday morning when Sen. John Cornyn of Texas, a former No. 2 Republican, enthusiastically endorsed Kari Lake, the Republican front-runner in Arizona’s Senate race. Cornyn, the only one so far to officially announce that he is running, has sought to quickly begin his campaign to replace McConnell, with a full push toward his 48 Senate colleagues and beyond.
“I’ve called them all,” Cornyn said in an interview. “I called them all and met personally with several of them. Most people say, ‘Well, you know, we’d like to have a longer conversation.'”
While Cornyn hinted that he had already secured compromises, most Senate Republicans are holding off on any promises, hoping to make the most of their leadership vote and squeeze the contenders by pitting them against each other. There is a long way to go.
And the shadow of former President Donald J. Trump looms over the race. The decision by McConnell, who does not speak to Trump, to step aside was a tacit recognition that he had fallen too far from the MAGA base of the party that reveres the former president to remain as leader. Thune has also been a harsh critic of Trump, as has Cornyn, although both have endorsed him in recent weeks.
It is quite possible that the two Johns, Thune and Cornyn, will be joined by a third, Senator John Barrasso of Wyoming, the third Senate Republican who has indicated a strong interest in moving up in leadership and has recently positioned himself to the right of his two most likely opponents. Although he has not stated his intentions, he endorsed and appeared in Arizona with Ms. Lake this week. He has maintained strong ties with Trump.
Another name floating around is Sen. Steve Daines of Montana, head of the National Republican Senatorial Committee, making him responsible for the party’s effort to capture the Senate. A strong showing in November could make him a viable candidate with a built-in support base of those he helped win seats, as well as other grateful colleagues. He is also close to Trump.
Far-right sections of Senate Republicans can also field a candidate, or at least try to leverage their voting bloc to extract concessions from others, as House arch-conservatives did in the leadership fight in the Rotunda. Some want to see another try from Sen. Rick Scott of Florida, whom McConnell easily dispatched in a 2022 leadership election.
“I ran 14 months ago because I believe we need change,” Scott said, although he did not declare his own candidacy. “I think there will be a lot of people.”
The leadership fight promises to be a distraction at best as contenders jockey for position and could be more so if things get testy, though candidates say they hope to remain civil, at least publicly.
“I don’t expect any animosity among members,” Mr. Cornyn said. “I respect my teammates. “I think John Thune will be in the race, and John is a good senator and friend of mine.”
Given the time left until the election, some senators have suggested it would be better if McConnell ceded the leadership reins more quickly and forced the internal race sooner. But so far that seems unlikely, as he seems determined to wait until after the election.
Thune, traditionally a conservative, is considered a straight-laced person and was seen as doing a capable job when McConnell was sidelined last year after a fall. Cornyn, the former head of the Senate campaign organization, is known for his fundraising prowess. His allies say he has already amassed $13 million for Republican candidates this election cycle.
All of the contenders and their colleagues say they are interested in ways to respond to widespread unease about how the Senate works (or doesn’t work) and better empower individual senators after much of the decision-making has been concentrated for years in the senators’ leadership group. McConnell, where he reigned supreme.
“It’s a lot of listening,” Thune said of his meetings with colleagues. “It’s obviously a new era and a reset. “People have a lot of ideas about how to make the place work better and improve the work we do here.”
“A lot of the anger and frustration you hear from senators is because they are basically being treated like potted plants,” Cornyn said. “They cannot participate either in the committee’s annotations or in an open amendment process in the plenary session. And I would like to change that.”
Whoever emerges from the leadership battle will have a difficult task in what will almost certainly continue to be a Senate closely divided between Democrats and Republicans, with a growing divide between those on the far right of the GOP and those who remain in the center-right.
“I admire people who want to do it, because it takes time away from their family and it’s difficult,” said Sen. Lindsey Graham, R-South Carolina, who said he had no interest in leadership. “I’d rather fight a polar bear with a knife.”
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