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By Andy McCullough, Stephen J. Nesbitt, Will Sammon and Eno Sarris
Trade
The Baltimore Orioles get: Corbin Burnes, RHP
The Milwaukee Brewers get: D.L. Hall, P.I.; Joey Ortiz, INF; 2024 Competitive Balance Round A Draft Pick (#34 Overall)
Andy McCullough: Earlier this winter there was consternation among Orioles fans over the team’s lack of aggressiveness in the pitching market. All the elements had aligned for the franchise in 2023: a 101-win team, a young, vibrant core of position players, a rebuilt relationship with its fan base. All the club needed was some help in the starting rotation, preferably in the form of a number one starter. The organization owned the surplus from the agricultural system to carry it out. In a mailbag I wrote last month, I answered a question from a Baltimore fan who wondered why general manager Mike Elias was taking so long to address the vacancy.
“I’m not necessarily a fan of aggression for aggression’s sake,” I wrote. “If you get a good player on November 15 or January 15, it doesn’t really make any difference.”
And the same principle applies on February 1st. Thanks to Elías for giving up the prospective capital necessary to make such a high-profile addition.
Here’s where Corbin Burnes ranks among qualified starting pitchers as of 2020:
- Second in wins above replacement, according to FanGraphs (17.9)
- Fifth in effectiveness (2.86)
- Third in FIP (2.84)
- Fifth in innings (622 1/3)
- Seventh in strikeout rate (11.06 per nine innings)
He’s the complete package in terms of a modern starting pitcher. For a team like the Orioles, who are likely to treat Burnes as a rental, the slight decline in his shooting metrics in 2023 is less alarming than it might be for a team interested in a long-term commitment, which Burnes will pursue through agency free after this season. He provides a top-line starter for a rotation that already features promising arms like Kyle Bradish and Grayson Rodriguez, and John Means is also expected to play a major role in 2024.
The centerpiece of Milwaukee’s return package is DL Hall, a former first-round pick who debuted in Baltimore’s bullpen last season. The Brewers believe Hall can develop into a quality starter (a belief Elias shared, for what it’s worth) and are optimistic about infielder Joey Ortiz, who was virtually locked out of Baltimore’s infield. The 34th pick in this year’s draft is a nice addition.
This trade is unlikely to be popular in Milwaukee. Depending on your perspective, it indicates a capitulation in the short term (a reigning division winner trades its best player even though the division is still quite winnable) or the cost of doing business for a club that has committed to this team style. building. The Brewers have not punted in 2024; They signed Rhys Hoskins for a reason. However, the team knew it was not going to sign Burnes to a long-term contract. They opted to maximize his value rather than simply receive draft pick compensation next summer. Knowing how Milwaukee tends to optimize pitchers, I wouldn’t be surprised if Hall emerges as an All-Star in 2024.
Still, it’s always a shame when teams get rid of elite players like this. Burnes emerged as a star in Milwaukee, anchoring the club to repeated postseason appearances alongside Brandon Woodruff in recent years. Woodruff’s shoulder injury last season ended his tenure in Milwaukee. This doesn’t mean the Brewers won’t be competitive this season. They could still be the favorites in the National League Central. With Woodruff gone, Craig Counsell settled in Chicago and now Burnes headed to the Charm City, an era has ended in Milwaukee.
Brewing grade: b
Orioles Grade: TO
Stephen J. Nesbitt: In one fell swoop, by landing the best starting pitcher on the trade market, the Orioles have taken their rotation from middle-of-the-pack to something close to potent. The Orioles have been rewarded for their long rebuild with a lineup packed with young talent (and more premium prospects on the way), but the missing piece to their puzzle was an ace. Burnes is an ace. Don’t take it away from me. Take it from the industry experts who voted him last spring as Gerrit Cole’s equal and one of the top three starters in the sport.
“Cerebral,” one scout said at the time. “Durable. Damn good. He’s got it all.”
In fact it does. Burnes didn’t become a regular in the Brewers’ rotation until 2020, then posted a 2.86 ERA over the next four seasons: he won a Cy Young Award in 2021 and finished sixth, seventh and eighth the other years. That the Orioles were able to offer a package of players for Burnes that left their core intact is a testament to the strength of the franchise’s farm system. Hall is a former first-rounder who moved to the bullpen due to command issues, although the Brewers will likely give him another chance to start. Ortiz is a top-100 prospect, but the Orioles already have a projected 2024 frame with Gunnar Henderson (22), Jackson Holliday (20) and Jordan Westburg (25), with second-rounder Connor Norby (23) at Triple TO. .
All that said, the Orioles became inarguably stronger with this trade and didn’t give up on their elite prospects. Instead, they will pay Burnes’ $15.6 million salary, putting some of that new property money wear. That’s a victory. Meanwhile, the Brewers save money, lose their ace and add two MLB-ready 25-year-olds with real upside. That’s nothing, but it’s not really a victory.
Brewing grade: B-
Orioles Grade: TO
Will Sammon: Burnes is as dedicated to his job as any athlete I’ve ever been around. To recover from a terrible 2019, he changed everything about his daily and weekly rituals while working with a mental strength coach. Since then, his annual production on the mound has been as routine as making his bed in the morning.
The Orioles can rely on Burnes for 200 innings and finish in the top 10 for the Cy Young Award. How many pitchers can claim that as a projection? Scouts love him for his tenacity, while executives love him for his durability.
On the mound, Burnes operates with constant resentment. In his work, he carries an arrogance with him, as many great players tend to do. Those who know him best suggest that he is poised to have a monster season before free agency. The Orioles got an ace, a former pillar of the Brewers’ recent consistent success.
The Brewers’ moves this offseason seem strange to me.
Yes, redeeming a star before a year’s walk makes logical sense for a team that operates on a smaller budget than most. They can’t risk losing him for anything and they can’t repeat the Josh Hader trade from a couple years ago when they dealt their star player at the deadline and fell apart during the pennant race.
But Milwaukee had operated in an intriguing manner before this move. According to league sources, owner Mark Attanasio strengthened the offer for Rhys Hoskins to land the slugger and the Brewers made a competitive offer to Aroldis Chapman. They had a window to win here and seemed to be doing an admirable job of competing in 2024 while also prioritizing young players. They seemed to be taking advantage of one last hurray with Burnes and Willy Adames, another free agent after next season. Now what? The messages are contradictory, at best.
Brewing grade: C+
Orioles Grade: TO
Eno Sarris: This makes a lot of sense for the Orioles. It’s just one year of Burnes, but he’s a top-three starter in the league along with two young starters in the top 20, at least for my latest rankings. They probably didn’t have a starting job for Ortiz in the infield, and Hall was a maybe-bullpen, maybe-starter, maybe-bullpen guy, even by his own public comments. New owners, a team coming off a great season: they took advantage of the moment.
This makes a lot of sense for the Brewers. They probably weren’t going to pay to retain Burnes once his team control expired after this season, and in Burnes they get a pair of assets (and a pick) that could help them beyond this season.
In the minors, Ortiz hit the ball 114.9 mph in 2023, something only 30 major leaguers did in the majors last season, and he did it with a better-than-average strikeout rate and good defense. He could end up playing third or second for the Brewers this year, or even be in the mix at shortstop with Bryce Turang if Milwaukee continues to reset and sends Willy Adames somewhere (Los Angeles?).
On the pitching side, the Brewers get Hall, a lefty who hit 96 mph last year and has two or three really strong secondaries, although that speed came as a relief. He has had command problems in the past, but his placements the last two years have been above average in small samples. Hall will have a great opportunity to join the Major League rotation from day one of this season, and the underlying processes suggest he could be a successful starter in that.
The Orioles probably feel like they protected their best position player assets and turned a bullpen piece into one of the best starters in the league. The Brewers are excited about the future of two young players who will be in Milwaukee this past season. Works.
Brewing grade: b
Orioles Grade: TO
(Burnes top photo: John Fisher/Getty Images)