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Existing models are outdated and bear little relation to reality on the ground, according to the international team of researchers behind the studies.
“When dust emission models were developed, there were few continuously varying global data sets and simplifying assumptions were made for their implementation,” they write in the JGR Atmospheres paper. Those simplifications included assuming that the Earth’s surface has no vegetation, that most of the dust was emitted from North Africa and the Middle East, and that there was an infinite amount of dry, loose sediment on the surface.
In reality, the researchers discovered, the opposite is true. When they calculated calibrated annual dust emissions from 2001 to 2020 using daily satellite observations of dust emission sources every 500 meters across the Earth, the team found that much less dust is emitted at the surface than the dominant model assumes.
The new analysis published in Science of the Total Environment also found that Earth’s main sources of dust shift throughout the year between the deserts of eastern Asia, the Middle East and North Africa, and the bushlands of Australia and North America, variations hidden by the current model. .
Atmospheric dust affects both the climate and human health, even in areas far from its origin. Overall, the researchers write in the JGR Atmospheres study, the old model differs from satellite observations by up to two orders of magnitude.
“Current models have only told a fraction of the story,” said Adrian Chappell, professor of climate change impacts at Cardiff University’s School of Earth and Environmental Sciences and lead author of both papers. said in a press release.
Using the old model risks delaying scientific advances and improving climate change projections, researchers warn. They propose that the field adopt the new, more sensitive model to strengthen continued research.