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Forget all the audience complaints about how box office giants always lose the best picture Oscar to arty indies: The list includes “CODA,” “Nomadland,” “Moonlight,” “Parasite” and “Everything Everywhere All at Once” from last year. “.
Not this time.
This is the year of “Barbenheimer,” the new household word to describe the phenomenon of two eye-catching big-budget blockbusters that opened on the same day (July 21, 2023) and made Hollywood history by unexpectedly breaking box office records. . and earn great affection from the public, critics and, yes, the Oscar.
The films, both nominated for best picture, couldn’t be more different.
“Oppenheimer” (13 nominations) is a drama about nuclear fission. “Barbie” (eight nominations) is a comedy about nuclear feminism.
MORE: Oscar nominations 2024: full list of nominees
Oscar’s infamous aversion to laughs gives Christopher Nolan’s biopic about the father of the atomic bomb an advantage over Greta Gerwig’s version of a Mattel plastic doll. Ought? It will be? That’s the kind of mystery that always makes watching the Oscars a must-watch.
Since the movies were better than ever this year, expect plenty of close races. Two “Barbie” songs competing for best song also qualify as a battle of the sexes: Billie Eilish takes the Oscar stage to sing “What Was I Made For” and Ryan Gosling responds with “I’m Just Ken.”
Audiences love surprises on Oscar night. Remember “Everything Everywhere’s” Jamie Lee Curtis winning gold last year over “Black Panther” favorite Angela Bassett?
Who will revolutionize the list of winners this year? Let’s get the party started with my predictions for who should (and will) win in the top categories.
Tune in to ABC on Oscar Sunday! Pre-show coverage begins at 1 pm ET on ABC and ABC News Live. The 2024 Oscars debut at its new time slot of 7 pm ET live from the Dolby Theater on Sunday, March 10.
- Bradley Cooper (“Master”)
- Colman Domingo (“Rustin”)
- Paul Giamatti (“The Remains”)
- Cillian Murphy (“Oppenheimer”)
- Jeffrey Wright (“American Fiction”)
MUST WIN: Paul Giamatti (“The Remains”)
How can you not love this god among American character actors? It still hurts that Giamatti didn’t win (heck, he wasn’t even nominated) for his celebrated role as a wine snob in 2004’s “Sideways.” He praises wine for how it evolves and gains in complexity. That’s Giamatti for you. Working again with “Sideways” director Alexander Payne, Giamatti caps his career as Paul Hunham, a student-hating teacher at a boys’ academy who forges a new path by educating “vulgar little philistines” in civilizations. ancient. No one can fuse humor with emotional gravity like Giamatti. Watching him perform is an education for anyone who wants to study for a master’s degree.
WILL WIN: Cillian Murphy (“Oppenheimer”)
At 47, this Irish actor is a decade younger than Giamatti, but his mastery of his craft is equally impeccable. His total immersion in the body and bruised soul of J. Robert Oppenheimer, the dark knight of the atomic age, is beautiful, terrifying, and a marvel to behold. Nothing in his previous work prepares you for his tour de force as Oppy. Nothing except the six seasons in which Murphy played the impossibly sexy, impossibly blue-eyed gangster Tommy Shelby in “Peaky Blinders.” Those legions of “Peaky” fans in the academy could be just the advantage Murphy needs to break into the Oscar winners’ circle.
- Annette Bening (“Nyad”)
- Lily Gladstone (“The Flower Moon Killers”)
- Sandra Hüller (“Anatomy of a Fall”)
- Carey Mulligan (“Master”)
- Emma Stone (“Poor Things”)
MUST WIN: Sandra Hüller (“Anatomy of a Fall”)
Nobody expects this to happen, that’s the fun of betting on a risky bet like Hüller taking the gold for her brilliance as the German wife and mother on trial for pushing her husband out of a chalet window to his death. Nominated writer-director Justine Triet never tells us whether her wife actually did it. But Hüller delivers an all-ages performance that tells us everything we need to know about what ends a marriage.
WILL WIN: Lily Gladstone (“The Flower Moon Killers”) and Emma Stone (“Poors”)
A tie is rare, but not impossible, since back in 1969 Barbra Streisand (“Funny Girl”) and Katharine Hepburn (“The Lion in Winter”) did just that. Why not do it again?
Stone does his best as a revived corpse with a baby brain. Gladstone takes the easy route, catching every telling nuance as an Osage bride who fears her white husband wants to kill her for her oil money. If pressed to name just one, I’ll choose Gladstone, as she would make history as the first Native American woman to win the Oscar for best actress.
Best Supporting Actor
- Sterling K. Brown (“American Fiction”)
- Robert De Niro (“The Flower Moon Killers”)
- Robert Downey Jr. (“Oppenheimer”)
- Ryan Gosling (“Barbie”)
- Mark Ruffalo (“Poor Things”)
MUST WIN: Ryan Gosling (“Barbie”)
It’s hard to win an Oscar for a comedy, but it’s easier when a serious actor laughs. Think Kevin Kline in 1988’s “A Fish Called Wanda.” Gosling really comes across as goofy as a Ken doll who wants his life to be more than the beach. Gosling never winks at Ken’s true sexual confusion and his introduction to toxic masculinity. Never before has an actor brought so much complexity and commitment to a piece of inert plastic. He’d be hard to beat, except for…
WILL WIN: Robert Downey Jr. (“Oppenheimer”)
All of his megastar years as Iron Man in the Marvel universe may make you forget that Downey is one of the best actors on the planet. Here’s a reminder. Downey is almost unrecognizable (Oscar voters love a transformation) as the grizzled, underhanded atomic energy czar Lewis Strauss, whose willing smile can’t hide his furious animosity for the whole Oppy thing. A first Oscar for Downey seems inevitable and too long.
Best Supporting Actress
- Emily Blunt (“Oppenheimer”)
- Danielle Brooks (“The Color Purple”)
- America Ferrera (“Barbie”)
- Jodie Foster (“Nyad”)
- Da’Vine Joy Randolph (“The Remains”)
MUST WIN: Jodie Foster (“Nyad”)
Blunt, Brooks and especially Ferrera basically have a great scene driving their nominations. Foster has quite the career, including two best actress wins for “The Silence of the Lambs” and “The Accused,” both won before she turned 30 (she earned her first best supporting actress nomination at age 14 for playing a teenage sex worker in “Taxi Driver”). Now, at 61, Foster returns to a supporting role as Bonnie Stoll, the best friend, former flirt and coach of Olympic swimmer Diana Nyad, played by best actress nominee Annette Bening. Foster’s joy is infectious as she mocks Nyad’s expanding ego and her need to embellish the truth. Just as Bonnie encourages Diana, Foster reinforces Bening’s star turn. It’s a true supporting performance and a joy to watch.
WILL WIN: Da’Vine Joy Randolph (“The Remains”)
Who’s joking with who? Randolph occupies as much screen time, and to equally wonderful effect, as his co-star Paul Giamatti, who is nominated for best actor. Randolph raises the old argument about what defines a role as leader or support. The area where there is no argument is Randolph’s funny, moving and vital performance as Mary Lamb, the black kitchen manager at the white children’s school where Giamatti teaches in the 1970s. Mary is mourning the death of her soldier son. in Vietnam and fuses his anger with the bracing resilience in his bones. Randolph, 37, has already won every supporting actress award in the book and deserves them all. She expects a rubber stamp from Oscar.
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- “American Fiction”
- “Anatomy of a fall”
- “Barbie”
- “The remains”
- “Moonflower Killers”
- “Teacher”
- “Oppenheimer”
- “Past Lives”
- “Poor things”
- “The Zone of Interest”
MUST WIN (if critics voted): “Anatomy of a fall”
Justine Triet’s “Anatomy of a Fall” would top the list, followed by “The Interest Zone” and “Lives Past,” a cinematic romance worthy of a time capsule, proving that foreign language films more than deserve their place in the list of best movies. Who says no? Look at the damning evidence: “Parasite,” the explosive South Korean family drama that took gold in 2020, is the first and still the only non-English-language film to win best picture in the film’s 96-year history. Academy. And don’t expect things to change. The Oscar winner for best picture has been in the cards since the nominations were announced on January 23 and the title is…
WILL WIN: “Oppenheimer”
Everything is over except the screaming. It’s time for Christopher Nolan, 53, his generation’s Steven Spielberg for directing smart, indelible epic films, to take home the big prize. A prophet without honor in Oscar country since he never won best director or best picture, Nolan will finally find fame in those essential categories. You can count on that. Until “Oppenheimer,” only Nolan’s “Inception” and “Dunkirk” were nominated for the top prize. Crazy, right? When Nolan’s iconic “The Dark Knight” missed the cut, many felt the old academy changed the number of best picture nominees from 5 to 10 just to make sure those mistakes didn’t happen again. It’s a shame the academy couldn’t borrow from Nolan’s brilliant, groundbreaking film, “Memento,” and go back in time to rectify his shameful omissions.
“Oppenheimer,” which uses past history to underscore the threat of nuclear annihilation that still stalks us, is Nolan at his peak. Prepare for the Oscar to recognize this monumental achievement that is on its way to screen history. The envelope, please.
Watch the 2024 Oscars live from the Dolby Theater on Sunday, March 10 at 7 pm ET (one hour earlier than usual) on ABC and catch the biggest celebrity moments, wins and performances on Oscar.com.