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Conference championship weekend is finally here. In the first of Sunday’s two games, the defense Super Bowl champion Kansas City Chiefs will visit the The Baltimore Ravens like two of the NFL The best team competes for the right to be called the best in the AFC.
The Ravens finished the regular season with the best record in the NFL and will bring in the league’s likely MVP. Lamar Jackson to support Patrick Mahomes and Co. Baltimore is seeking its first AFC title of the Jackson era, and its first as a franchise since the 2012 season, when John Harbaugh’s team defeated his brother Jim’s team. 49ers in the Super Bowl.
Meanwhile, Kansas City is looking to return to the Super Bowl for the fourth time in Mahomes’ six seasons under center and capture its first AFC title game win on the road. The Chiefs have hosted the conference championship in each of the last five years, and this will be a new challenge for them a week after hitting the road for the first time in the playoffs, period.
Which of these teams will represent the AFC in the Super Bowl? We will know very soon. Before we break down the matchup, here’s how you can watch the game.
how to look
Date: Sunday January 28 | Time: 3 pm eastern time
Location: M&T Bank Stadium (Baltimore)
TELEVISION: CBS | Stream on Supreme+
Continue: CBS Sports App
Odd: Ravens -3.5, Over/Under 44.5 (via Sportsline Consensus Odds)
When the Chiefs have the ball
Coming off two of their best offensive performances of the year, the Chiefs will now face the toughest defense they’ve seen all season. Baltimore finished the regular season in first place in FTN DVOA, with the league’s seventh-best run unit and best pass defense.
Mike Macdonald’s group celebrated CJ Stroud and the explosive Houston Texans offensive, which had just destroyed the brown — just 213 total yards, 10 first downs and three offensive points a week ago. Obviously, doing that against a rookie quarterback in his first road playoff game, while missing his No. 2 and 3 wide receivers (Dell Tank and Noah Brown), is a much different task than doing it against Patrick Mahomes, Andy Reid and this Chiefs offense, even if that offense didn’t perform up to its usual standards this season.
The most important aspect of this matchup will be how Kansas City’s offensive line withstands Macdonald’s various pressure looks. The Ravens don’t actually blitz that often (23.4% of opponent dropbacks during the regular season, according to Tru Media, the seventh-lowest blitz rate in the NFL), but Macdonald makes heavy use of simulated pressures. so that opponents don’t know where the attackers are coming from.
The Chiefs in recent seasons have been excellent on offense, but their signings Jawan Taylor and Donovan Smith to fill the tackle spots hasn’t worked out as well as their other tackles the past two years, and thus they’ve been much more vulnerable up front than at any time since their Super Bowl loss to the buccaneers A few years ago. Mahomes is able to mitigate and avoid pressure like the best of them because of his ability to create on the move as a thrower and runner, but he’s also been more affected by pressure this season than at any previous point in Mahomes’ career. he. If the Ravens can get after him early and often and keep him from throwing with rhythm, this year’s Chiefs can lose their game. We have seen it happen.
Kansas City has been in denial about that issue in recent weeks, for the most part. Even if they are able to do that again, the Chiefs will face tougher matchups in the secondary than against either team. dolphins either Bills.
Travis Kelce I will see many Roquan Smith in the middle of the field, as well as Mark Williams excessive. If you head to the slot, kyle hamilton It will be there waiting for you. Rashee Rice He lines up in the slot quite often and will have to deal with Hamilton there. If you go out, you can see Marlon Humphreywho returned to training this week, but was also able to see Brandon Esteban and cloud cover next to it. (I wouldn’t be surprised to see Rice on the move quite often to get him free breaks on downfield routes.) Judicious use of screens will be key against this Baltimore defense, as it is important to be able to use the Ravens’ aggressiveness against them. but I also don’t want to be too passive when it comes to challenging them downfield.
Considering the relative weakness of the rest of the pass-catching group, it wouldn’t be surprising to see Macdonald devote special attention to both players and try to force Mahomes to beat him by throwing to players like Márquez Valdés-Scantling, Justin Watson, Melchor Hardman, James Richieand gray noah. That’s easier said than done with Reid planning things, but there have also been few things more difficult in the NFL this season than throwing the ball against the Ravens defense.
Isiah Pacheco He’s generally run pretty well since returning from injury, but Kansas City’s running game was inconsistent at best during the regular season. The Chiefs will need the most devastating version of their offensive line to show up on Sunday, whether they make it or not. Joe Thuney (who has not yet practiced due to a pectoral injury) can put on the suit. And if he’s out, that will only weaken what has just been a passable unit, putting KC further behind the eight ball against this terrifying Baltimore group.
When the Ravens have the ball
Unlike previous seasons, Kansas City’s defense is a unit capable of taking on a high-level offense and coming out victorious on the other end. The Chiefs finished this season seventh in DVOA, ranking 27th against the run and fifth against the pass.
The first number, obviously, is worrying against a Ravens team led by Lamar Jackson. The Chiefs allowed the 10th most rushing yards to quarterbacks during the regular season, according to Tru Media, although they notably held quarterbacks to a low explosive rush rate (6.6% compared to an average of the league of 9.7%), thanks to its strong attacking capacity at the second level. If Kansas City can limit Jackson’s runs to short-to-medium gains and prevent him from making big plays on the ground, that may tilt the matchup a bit in their favor.
The Ravens averaged the sixth-most yards before contact per carry and running back runs this season, according to Tru Media, and while the Gus Edwards/Justice Hill combination doesn’t provide as much explosiveness as players like J.K. Dobbins I Keaton Mitchell Each one has his merits as a ball carrier. Both players tend to get what’s blocked for them and don’t break tackles much, but Hill, in particular, looked pretty good against the Texans last week, and that was a team that had finished the season in second place. in run defense DVOA.
How well Baltimore’s offensive line can control the matchup up the middle and whether the Ravens can take advantage of the fact that Chris Jones –a true destroyer in the aerial game– has not been so good defending the race This year, as he has done for most of his career, he will also be key. The middle of the pocket is also the key for the Ravens in the passing game. Jones is by far the best pass rush threat on Kansas City’s defensive line, and will remain to tangle with a strong interior trio of John Simpson, Tyler Linderbaumand Kevin Zeitler. Jackson tends to be more susceptible to pressure up the middle because of the way he navigates the pocket, so preventing Jones from pushing that inside into his lap will be of utmost importance.
Last week against Houston, By Meco Ryans unleashed an avalanche of blitzes during the first half that kept Baltimore’s passing game at bay. The Texans rarely attacked during the regular season, but they did so on an incredible 72.2% of Jackson’s dropbacks before halftime a week ago. Steve Spagnuolo blitzed 38.4% of his opponents’ dropbacks during the regular season, the fifth-highest rate in the league, according to Tru Media. It wouldn’t be at all surprising if Spags tried to warm up Lamar as often as possible in this game, making him show that he can beat the blitz the same way he did after halftime last week. (He was 8 of 9 for 79 yards and a touchdown.)
The Ravens could get Mark Andrews back for this game, and the combination of him and Isiah Likely could give the Ravens an advantage over the middle of the field. It will be interesting to see if the Chiefs decide to continue zay flowers with L’Jarius Sneedor if they feel comfortable with any of Trent McDuffie, Joshua Williamseither jaylen watson kill him at any time. Odell Beckham Jr.. didn’t see the much-rumored playing time expansion last week, instead taking a back seat behind Rashod Bateman and Nelson Agholor in the hierarchical order. How that group develops and whether they are able to find the same type of success they had for much of the season, against a very stingy secondary, will obviously influence the success Jackson is able to find through the air.
Prediction: Chiefs 20, Ravens 17
Most of the matchup numbers and details point toward the Ravens. They’re at home, they were the best team during the regular season, they have the likely league MVP… and yet, I can’t pick against Patrick Mahomes and/or Andy Reid. Until these guys are defeated, I’ll keep going with them.
If you want a more analytical approach to your NFL Picksthen I strongly suggest you check out the SportsLine projection model, which has been on fire this year. Check it out if you want to know which side to bet on each divisional round game.
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