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For the first time in 19 years, an Australian Open men’s singles final will not feature Roger Federer, Rafael Nadal or Novak Djokovic. And so, for the first time in a decade, the Norman Brookes Challenge Cup is guaranteed to be in the hands of a player who is not part of the famous Big Three. Djokovic’s historic streak was crushed on Friday when the defending champion suffered his first defeat at Melbourne Park in 2,195 days, which included 33 straight wins, en route to 4 straight titles, by Jannik Sinner, who admitted to taking his game to a completely new level in the last fortnight, in the semi-finals. The Italian will face two-time Melbourne finalist Daniil Medvedev, who bounced back from the brink in a thrilling five-set match against Alexander Zverev. As the two prepare for the ultimate showdown at the iconic Rod Laver Arena on Sunday night, we take a look at their journey at the 2024 Australian Open, their past battles and put together the tactics board to predict the winner. .
How did Sinner and Medvedev reach the 2024 Australian Open final?
Medvedev, who had previously reached the final of the Australian Open in 2021 and 2022, spent a whopping 20 and a half hours on court in six matches, of which only one victory in straight sets, against Felix Auger-Aliassime in the third round. Three others fell until the last moment: against Emil Ruusuvuori in the second round, Hubert Hurkacz in the quarterfinals and Zverev in the semifinal.
Sinner, on the other hand, who only lost one set on the way to the final, against Djokovic, in a match in which he did not face a single break point, was only five hours and 49 minutes on the court. He beat Botic van de Zandschulp in the first round, Jesper De Jong in the second, Sebastian Baez in the third, Karen Khachanov in the fourth and Andrey Rublev in the quarters before achieving the biggest victory of his career in the semi-finals.
What milestones are at stake for Sinner and Medvedev in the 2024 Australian Open final?
If Sinner wins his first Grand Slam title on Sunday, the 22-year-old will become the youngest to lift the Australian Open trophy since 20-year-old Djokovic won it in 2008. He will also become the first Italian player in history. to win a major in Melbourne and the second man in the Open Era to win a Slam after Adriano Panatta won the 1976 French Open.
Meanwhile, Medvedev, who hopes to add to his record at the 2021 US Open, can become the first Russian since Marat Safin in 2005 to win the Australian Open title and third overall, the other being Yevgeny Kafelnikov (1999). The victory would also make the world No. 3 the sixth active player to win multiple majors, joining Djokovic, Nadal, Alcaraz, Andy Murray and Stan Wawrinka.
Have Sinner and Medvedev faced each other before on the ATP tour?
They have met nine times, all on hard courts, on the ATP tour, the first dating back to 2020, with Medvedev leading the head-to-head rivalry 6-3. However, Sinner won their last three matches, which included the final in Vienna and Beijing and a semi-final in Turin. By the way, this will be his first meeting in a Grand Slam event.
Where will Sinner and Medvedev’s Australian Open final be decided?
One of the crucial aspects of Sinner’s ability to have turned the tables in his rivalry against Medvedev, having won three consecutive matches against him, is due to his willingness to get closer to the net more often and take advantage of the deep return position of the Russian, while showing a notable improvement in its service.
“He did a little more serve and volley, maybe a little more aggressive, but at the same time that’s what he’s doing against everyone,” Medvedev said of his last three meetings with Sinner. “He’s just playing better. “The three games were tough. Two tiebreakers and two three-set matches. I had my opportunities. All of them were at the end of the season, where I felt like he wasn’t 100 percent, even though he was playing pretty well. Maybe he was at 97, 96 percent, and against him you have to be at 100.”
The matchup will depend on Sinner’s service. While the two are almost inseparable in first serve winning percentage (Sinner’s 78 vs. Medvedev’s 75), the Italian is more effective on his second serves, winning 60 percent of points, compared to the 48 of his opponent. He also dominates under pressure, as he leads the tour’s break points saved chart over the past 12 months. Throughout this same tournament, he has only been broken twice in 88 games so far and he has not given a single break point to Djokovic. And this is where the battle will be: Medvedev tops the list of break points converted (46.4 percent in the same period).
Who will win the Australian Open final from Sinner and Medvedev?
There were multiple occasions where Medvedev was on the brink of an exit in Melbourne, but it was his resilience that paid off. He has the experience of playing in a Grand Slam final and knows what it takes to win the elusive title. Furthermore, for the first time he will not face Nadal or Djokovic in a major final. But Sinner has been in the best shape of his life, this has been his moment. One wants to discuss the nerves of not being at this stage of his career sooner, but the Italian seems safer or healthier than ever.
Winner: Sinner in four sets.