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FORECAST: GOLD, EUR/USD, NASDAQ 100
- The Federal Reserve left borrowing costs unchanged and continued to signal it would pursue three rate cuts this year.
- The prospects of moderate politics weighed on the American dollar and performance, promoting gold prices and the Nasdaq 100
- This article examines the technical prospects of XAU/American dollar, EURUSD and the NDX
Most read: The Federal Reserve keeps rates stable and the political outlook for 2024 does not change: what now?
US stocks and gold prices rose while the US dollar slowly fell on Wednesday after the Federal Reserve stuck to script and largely maintained the same policy outlook adopted three months ago in the previous Summary of Economic Projections, making ignoring growing price pressures in the economy.
For context, the FOMC kept borrowing costs at their current levels at its March meeting, reaffirming its intention to implement 75 basis points of flexibility in 2024. Wall Street, fearing an aggressive outcome in the face of growing inflationary risks, breathed a sigh of relief at the institution’s moderate response.
While there were some hawkish elements in the Federal Reserve’s guidance, such as the upward revision of the long-term equilibrium rate, traders chose to focus on the near-term future and the fact that the easing cycle is It is slowly approaching and looming on the horizon.
All that said, the main takeaway from the FOMC meeting was this: In reality, nothing has changed for the central bank; Plans to cut rates this year remain underway and the process to slow the pace of quantitative tightening is rapidly approaching, and Powell says tapering could begin. “pretty soon”.
Given current events, bond yields will struggle to rise much higher in the near term, especially if incoming economic data begins to cooperate with authorities. This could prevent the US dollar from extending its bounce in the coming days and weeks.
Meanwhile, risk assets and precious metals such as gold and silver could be better positioned to maintain bullish momentum heading into the second quarter. This could potentially mean new all-time highs for both gold and the Nasdaq 100.
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GOLD PRICE FORECAST – TECHNICAL ANALYSIS
Gold rose on Wednesday, surpassing its previous record and hitting a new all-time high above $2,220. With the bulls seemingly in control of the market, a potential move towards the trendline resistance at $2,225 is conceivable. If it strengthens further, a rally above $2,250 cannot be ruled out.
Conversely, if sellers turn and pull back, support looms at $2,195, the early March high. Below this level, the focus will be on $2,150, followed by $2,090. Bulls must vigorously defend this technical floor; Failure to do so will expose the 50-day simple moving average at $2,065.
TECHNICAL TABLE OF THE PRICE OF GOLD
Gold price chart created with TradingView
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NASDAQ 100 FORECAST – TECHNICAL ANALYSIS
The Nasdaq 100 rose sharply on Wednesday in response to the Federal Reserve’s dovish outlook, coming within striking distance of retesting its all-time high near 18,690. Traders should closely monitor this technical top as a breakout could pave the way for a rally towards trendline resistance at 19,175.
On the other hand, if market sentiment again favors sellers and prices begin to correct lower, initial support will emerge at 18,150. Below this threshold, attention will focus on 17,805, a key level that currently coincides with the 50-day simple moving average.
NASDAQ 100 CHART – TECHNICAL ANALYSIS
Nasdaq 100 chart created with TradingView
For a complete view of the EUR/USD fundamental and technical outlook, be sure to download our free quarterly forecast!
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Change in |
Long pants |
Bermuda |
I HEARD |
| Daily | -30% | eleven% | -eleven% |
| Weekly | -5% | -sixteen% | -12% |
EUR/USD FORECAST – TECHNICAL ANALYSIS
EUR/USD jumped on Wednesday, with bulls apparently determined to challenge trendline resistance at 1.0950 after the FOMC announcement. In the event of a new test, sellers will have to defend themselves against the advance; Otherwise, there will be minimal obstacles to a rally towards 1.0970, a key Fibonacci level.
Alternatively, if bullish pressure begins to fade and sellers trigger a bearish reversal, support can be identified at 1.0890, followed by 1.0850, where an ascending trend line converges with the 50-day and 100-day moving averages.