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INDIANAPOLIS — And then there were four. Well in least four.
That seems to be the general consensus among personnel men regarding the quarterback class that emerged from last week’s NFL Scouting Combine. More precisely: As we move toward the pro day circuit and personal workouts, a swath of talent evaluators believe Michigan’s JJ McCarthy has joined USC’s Caleb Williams, LSU’s Jayden Daniels and North Carolina’s Drake Maye as safe first-round draft picks. This despite an at-times choppy throwing performance at the combine for McCarthy, particularly compared to other potential “second-tier” quarterbacks like Washington’s Michael Penix Jr. and Oregon’s Bo Nix, who had more sessions. fluid (although for different reasons) in Indianapolis.
When asked their opinion on the number of quarterbacks who now appear to be locked in the first round, seven of seven evaluators included McCarthy in that mix. As expected, McCarthy’s 18-minute interview sessions generated some positive reviews, as did his demeanor and interaction in quarterback drills, when two evaluators noted that others seemed to gravitate toward him. Testers were also pleasantly surprised to see him weigh 219 pounds, although there was at least some skepticism about how much of that was “real” weight, compared to the pounds that were packed on for the event through hydration and some calories.
That suspicion aside, the overall assessment was that McCarthy showed enough at the combine to keep teams intrigued by his above-average arm strength and combination of intangibles and leadership, allowing him to take advantage this week in his Michigan’s next pro day (March 22). ) and the list of personal visits and training that he will carry out. All of this means that while the teams inside the top three – or those capable of moving into the top three – try to determine a pecking order between Williams, Daniels and Maye, the rest of the teams in need of No. 8 quarterbacks ( the Atlanta Falcons) and beyond must understand McCarthy.
You may not be alone in that selection process. Among the seven evaluators, three believed Penix or Nix, or both, could also establish themselves as first-round picks in the next seven weeks.
“It could be five (first-round quarterbacks) or more,” one evaluator said. “It just depends on how many jobs are open – and what jobs are open – after free agency, and how everyone feels about the long-term options.”
Another evaluator added: “Next year (the quarterback class) will be soft. In terms of experience in this class, definitely some experience, but also talent, I think it’s better than next year’s group. In my opinion, there are some exploring the future there. “We have to weigh what is coming (in 2025) with the broader picture.”
In some evaluations, that’s what leads to suggestions that Penix or Nix could be first-round picks. But clearly both remain mysteries in the midst of this process. Like McCarthy, they have very different opinions about them. Unlike McCarthy, they don’t have the elements of age or a projected high ceiling working in their favor. Both will be 24 next season, both have started a lot of games and thrown a lot of passes, and both have a much more defined feel for what they can be. By contrast, McCarthy turned 21 in January and appears to have a lot of development (and potential ceiling) ahead of him. Some of which might have shown when he showed up at the combine at 219, instead of the low 200s some personnel departments were anticipating.
What Penix and Nix have going for them is that they looked much stronger in their throwing sessions at the combine. While there are still complaints about Nix’s arm strength, his mechanics were solid and his throwing session showed the touch and accuracy that will suit many offenses. And he showed that he could throw a deep ball, although not as easily as Penix.
Penix, meanwhile, had arguably the best shooting session of the combine. He threw deep passes with modest effort, with clean, tight spirals. He was also effective on intermediate passes, with solid timing despite working with unfamiliar receivers. His measurables also returned in good order, especially his 10 1/2 inch hands which probably have a lot to do with the ease and perfection of his deep balls. And while his physical is what it is (two shoulder surgeries and two knee surgeries), there was no indication last week that teams were alarmed about the health of those repairs. Not that it passed without comment.
“(Penix) is a pure pitcher,” a senior AFC executive said. “In this place, it looked really good. In the air (versus) with runners approaching you, those are two different things. But in my opinion, the medical exam would be what would keep him out of the first round.”
“Penix can throw it,” said another tester. “I’ll definitely see day 2.”
That particular evaluator stacked the second tier of quarterbacks like McCarthy and Nix with first-round potential.
In some respects, it seems that the same arguments that went into the combine survived as the same arguments came to light. That’s true, except for the information collected. McCarthy seems capable of adding weight to his frame and showed some leadership and “alpha” while blending in with his group of quarterbacks. Even with a so-so pitching performance, it was something to build on. Nix was solid and hardworking and continued to shape the figure of a player who has a lot of experience and is ready to step in sooner rather than later. And Penix showed that he could step in with the other quarterbacks (aside from the top three that didn’t work out) and put on a performance as good or better than anyone else on the field.
All in all? It’s a class of four first-round picks that could grow to five or six. Now come the pro days.