UFC 298 predictions — Alexander Volkanovski vs. Ilia Topuria: Fight card, odds, preview, expert picks

A massive PPV card is on the cards. The UFC returns to California on Saturday night with one of its most anticipated main events in a long time. Featherweight champion Alexander Volkanovski looks to defend his title against a hot challenger in Ilia Topuria. It all happens from the Honda Center in Anaheim, California, on Saturday night.

Volkanovski is fresh off a second failed attempt to become two-division champion after being eliminated by Islam Makhachev in October. The loss was humiliating after coming up short six months earlier by decision against the pound-for-pound great. Where he hasn’t had any trouble, however, is in 145-pound title fights, as Volk has held the championship for over four years.

Arguably the toughest test of that reign lies ahead of him: Topuria, who many believe has the ability to be a global superstar. Topuria is undefeated at 14-0 with a complete game that includes incredibly violent wins over Josh Emmett, Bryce Mitchell, Jai Herbert and Ryan Hall.

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With so much going on Saturday night, let’s take a closer look at the full card with the latest odds before we get to our staff’s predictions and picks for the PPV portion of the festivities.

UFC 298 fight card, odds

• Alexander Volkanovski (c) -130 vs. Ilia Topuria +110, featherweight title
• Robert Whittaker -250 vs. Paulo Costa +205, middleweights
• Ian Machado Garry -250 vs. Geoff Neal +205, welterweights
• Merab Dvalishvili -260 against Henry Cejudo +210, bantamweight
• Anthony Hernandez -240 vs. Roman Kopylov +200, middleweights
• Amanda Lemos -135 vs. Mackenzie Dern +115, women’s strawweight
• Marcos Rogerio de Lima vs. Junior Tafa, heavyweights
• Rinya Nakamura -1400 vs. Carlos Vera +800, bantamweight
• Zhang Mingyang -120 vs. Brendson Ribiero +100, light heavyweights
• Danny Barlow -220 vs. Josh Quinlan +180, welterweights
• Oban Elliott -320 vs. Val Woodburn +250, welterweights
• Miranda Maverick -185 vs. Andrea Lee +155, women’s flyweight

With such a massive main event on the horizon, the team at CBS Sports moved forward with predictions and picks for the main card. Here are your picks: Brent Brookhouse (combat sports writer), Brian Campbell (combat sports writer, co-host of “Morning Kombat”), Shakiel Mahjouri (writer), Michael Mormile (producer) and Brandon Wise (senior editor) .

UFC 298 picks and predictions

Volkanovski against Topuria

Campbell: Let’s not shy away from the questions that follow Volkanovski, which include both his age (35) and the fact that he is just four months removed from a short-notice knockout loss to lightweight champion Islam Makhachev in their rematch. But let’s also not shy away from the two skills that have helped give the UFC 145-pound champion living legend status: his ability to silence his opponent’s offense and his superhuman ability to escape from potentially dangerous situations. While it wouldn’t be incorrect to classify Topuria as Volkanovki’s toughest test to date in his current title reign, the champion remains undefeated as a featherweight in 18 career fights and can walk away from a title defense against Jose Aldo in the division record books. With a full camp behind him, expect Volkanovski to record a hard-earned decision in a competitive fight.

Brook House: I’m going to need to see more of Volkanovski fail twice to move up a weight class against the sport’s current pound-for-pound king before I write off the champion. The biggest concern for Volkanovski’s supporters is that he is not far from a brutal knockout loss. Topuria is a very good fighter and a victory here would not be a surprise. That said, Volkanovski is so dynamic and so clever in his ability to take away what opponents do best that it’s hard for me to see Topuria getting the win here. In fact, I’m expecting something of a blowout from Volkanovski here after holding off a bit of an initial Topuria attack, with Volkanovski finishing sometime around the third round.

Mahjouri: The margins are tight despite Volkanovski’s status as the all-time great featherweight. Volkanovski suffered a rare knockout loss last time out, expressed personal struggles last year and came out of his prime athletically. Those are important anchors when he’s fighting a complete offensive threat like Topuria. The challenger has sharp technique, power, speed and a variety of ways to finish the fight. Topuria has all the tools necessary to be a champion but, similar to Brian Ortega’s first title fight against Max Holloway, this is too steep an escalation in the opponent. Topuria’s superior finishing ability will cause a scare or two, but Volkanovski’s stamina and suffocating style will carry him to a unanimous decision victory. Expect Topuria to have better luck in his second UFC title fight.

Whittaker vs. Costa

Campbell: The one-sided dismantling Whittaker suffered at the hands of new champion Dricus du Plessis in his last fight has many wondering whether the 33-year-old former champion is coming or going as an elite title threat. This should be a perfect opportunity for “The Reaper” to bounce back. As dangerous and explosive as Costa may be, the gap in technical ability between the two should overwhelmingly favor Whittaker. Expect his jab and left hook to play a key role in disciplining Costa, who has the same type of size advantage that du Plessis used to overwhelm Whittaker, but a very different mentality in terms of how to utilize it. Whittaker knows this could be his last chance at a new title as the division continues to reload. A loss would leave him with three losses in his last four fights, which was almost incomprehensible just a few years ago.

Brook House: It’s impossible to ignore how thoroughly du Plessis handled Whittaker. It’s worth considering how Whittaker looked in that fight and wondering where it stands in the arc of his career. Costa, however, went do-or-die with a very faded version of Luke Rockhold, hasn’t fought since August 2022 and is approaching five years since he put on a complete and impressive performance. There’s no reason to view this as anything other than Whittaker’s struggle to lose.

Mahjouri: Whittaker has been an elite middleweight for over a decade. That hasn’t changed despite a surprising KO loss to Dricus du Plessis last year. Whittaker’s only losses as a middleweight are to UFC champions du Plessis and Adesanya. It’s Whittaker’s ability to score points that has kept him near the top of the group. Whittaker doesn’t have enormous power, but he excels at hitting opponents without absorbing clean shots. Costa wields the power necessary to stop Whittaker, but lacks the finesse to beat him technique by technique. It’s been six years since Costa stopped an opponent and his inability to defeat a semi-retired Luke Rockhold is striking. Whittaker will likely defeat Costa in a one-sided but unspectacular unanimous decision victory.

Garry vs. Neal

Mahjouri: Neal vs. Garry is a perfect match. Both are elite strikers looking to make a statement in the welterweight division. Neal had had mixed success rising through the UFC ranks and it’s his turn to welcome a hungry contender. Neal has more power than Garry, but Garry is better at controlling range. Garry’s range management was particularly on display as he pinned a longer opponent like Neil Magny with ferocious leg kicks. Garry’s striking differential is also very impressive. The Irishman has landed 6.67 punches per minute and has received 3.58 in the UFC, according to UFC statistics. By comparison, Neal lands an average of 5.22 strikes per minute and absorbs 5.6. It’s worth noting that Neal has faced better overall competition. Still, Garry’s margins are very impressive. Neal is not someone to be counted out, but I suspect Garry’s elusiveness will allow him to win by decision or knockout.

Dvalishvili vs. Cejudo

Campbell: Although the three-round setup might be preferable for Cejudo, 37, the former two-division champion still has the potential to be affected by Dvalishvili’s constant pressure and endless gas tank. With his teammate Aljamain Sterling no longer holding the bantamweight title, Dvalishvili has his 33-year-old window to find out how big he can be. Sterling, who held off a split decision in Cejudo’s return after a three-year retirement last May, will also be in Dvalishvili’s corner. The longer Cejudo can keep the fight going, the better chance he will have of overtaking Dvalishvili as the more accomplished striker. But Dvalishvili simply won’t stop coming, despite the resistance. Expect Cejudo, who said he would retire for good with a loss, to do exactly that as Dvalishvili’s spam offense carries him to a close decision victory.

Brook House: Cejudo is still a little small for the division. Dvalishvili is also a terrible stylistic opponent for Cejudo, with a big gas tank and the ability to overcome problems to close the gap and take blows away from opponents before imposing his will. Cejudo will likely have his moments (he’s too good a fighter not to), but Dvalishvili will have more as he grinds out and wears down Cejudo, eventually knocking him out.

Who wins UFC 298: Volkanovski vs. Topuria and how exactly does each fight end? Visit SportsLine now for detailed picks on UFC 298all from the MMA expert who earned over $6,200, and find out.