Who will win Oscars tonight? Predictions for the 2024 Academy Awards from entertainment industry experts

The 96th annual edition academy awards will meet on Sunday nominees what includes box office recordsHollywood veterans, newcomers and more than one. epic drama as big actors and even bigger movies compete for prestigious recognition. 2024 oscar ballot It promises to make for an interesting night. So, ahead of the show, entertainment industry experts shared their predictions about the results of some of the major categories.

Who will win the Oscar for best film?

“Oppenheimer” He is the clear favorite to win the Oscar for best image. Christopher Nolan’s epic historical drama about the nuclear physicist known as “the father of the atomic bomb” leads the Academy Awards nominations this year, with 13 nominations.

He has also already taken it home. every precursor award at previous awards shows this season, including equivalent categories at the Critics Choice and Golden Globe Awards, as well as the Screen Actors Guild, Directors Guild, Producers Guild and the British Academy, giving big hints about how it will fare in the best category. Sunday movie. career.

“I think there would be a big surprise if ‘Oppenheimer’ didn’t win, just because he swept,” said Lilliana Vázquez, a television host and lifestyle expert who previously hosted E! News. “That’s always a great indicator, if all the individual guilds can come together and pick a clear winner, then I think you really have to be careful with that specific film, in any category, or with that particular actor or actress.”

Movies rarely garner such broad industry-wide support, and those that have typically received the Oscars’ top honor, such as “Argo” and “Slumdog Millionaire” in recent decades.

“I’m not sure if we’ve had a big favorite like ‘Oppenheimer’ for a while, but ‘Oppehnheimer’ is really the favorite to win best picture,” said Fandango editor-in-chief Erik Davis, who praised the film. for its achievements on multiple fronts, including its narrative, cast performances, cinematography, editing and music.

“All the parts of ‘Oppenheimer,’ when put together, help it get over the line for best picture, because it is more than just an entertaining movie,” Davis added. “Overall, I think this movie rises to the level of winning an Oscar.”

Vázquez echoed that sentiment.

“‘Oppenheimer,’ for me, is a lock,” he said. “I think it hits on a lot of different levels. That style of film, the writing, the acting, is very good. Sometimes you see these independent films and people say, ‘I don’t get it.’ This is an issue that everyone can connect.”

“Oppenheimer” will compete for best picture along with nine other films: “American Fiction,” “Anatomy of a Fall,” “Barbie,” “The Holdovers,” “Killers of the Flower Moon,” “Maestro,” “Past Lives , “”Poor” and “The Zone of Interest”.

Experts doubt that any of those titles will be able to surpass Nolan’s film, and point out that a defeat for “Oppenheimer” in this category would probably be the surprise of the night.

“I think it’s one of those versatile movies that reaches everyone. And, you know, we always gravitate toward historical dramas,” said Aramide Tinubu, a Variety television critic who is also banking on “Oppenheimer’s” victory. “As interesting as ‘The Holdovers’ was, and even though it has a bit of a historical setting, it’s a much quieter movie. We love a good blockbuster here in the United States.”

But potential underdogs for best picture could still include Alexander Payne’s nostalgic “The Holdovers,” Justine Triet’s multilingual courtroom drama “Anatomy of a Fall” or Yorgos’ offbeat sci-fi comedy Lanthimos “Poor Things,” which follows “Oppenheimer” with 11 Oscar nominations.

“The most interesting thing about this year’s race is that you can’t even tell who will come in second place,” said Joyce Eng, an entertainment journalist and senior editor at Gold Derby, an industry blog that focuses on Hollywood. award predictions. Along with Christopher Rosen, the site’s digital director, Eng co-hosts the “Gold Derby Show” podcast, where the two discuss and forecast awards season.

Rosen noted that “Oppenheimer’s” projected triumph in the best picture race is not just due to the fact that it has taken the awards circuit by storm so far, but because it has all the makings of a winner. In addition to being a historical biopic, it was a critical and theatrical success, and both Eng and Rosen said the film’s early start as a supposed dark horse likely helped its popularity as well.

“I think it came in second, at least over the summer, to ‘Barbie’ in terms of box office and coverage. So it had the shine of an underdog even though it obviously wasn’t,” Rosen said, calling “Oppenheimer” is a “perfect consensus film as well as being a steamroller.”

“There has also been no fatigue from being the favorite,” said the engineer. “I think that’s the key”.

Who will win the Oscar for best actor?

As in the best picture race, experts are, for the most part, in agreement on the outcome of the best actor competition. Cillian Murphy who played the eponymous scientist in “Oppenheimer,” is the favorite to win this award, they said, due to the film’s huge success, as well as Murphy’s previous wins at the SAG Awards and the BAFTAs, indicating strong support from members of the industry that overlap with the Oscar voting pool. .

“It’s very difficult to go against him. [Murphy] with him getting these two really big awards,” Eng said. “The only thing Cillian has lost in terms of televised awards shows was the Critics Choice to Paul Giamatti, so I think that gave the impression that this race is closer than it really could be.”

Eight of the last 13 best actor wins at the Academy Awards have gone to someone playing a real-life figure, Vázquez noted, adding that “people love stories that are rooted in reality.” .

“Usually playing a real-life person is always a plus, it seems, especially for the best actor,” Rosen said. “And just the fact that ‘Oppenheimer’ is the favorite for best picture… there’s really no reason why Cillian Murphy wouldn’t have won this. And the fact that he won the precursor awards really confirms that. So I think “It would be pretty surprising if I lost on Oscar night. “It’s unprecedented, obviously, but it’s certainly surprising.”

Giamatti is nominated alongside Murphy in this category for his leading performance as a bitter boarding school teacher in “The Holdovers,” which has also received praise. Both veterans are first-time Oscar nominees for best actor, and for Giamatti, the recognition came nearly 20 years after what is remembered as an infamous snub in this category for his work in Payne’s 2004 comedy-drama, “Sideways.” “.

That has led some to suggest that a Giamatti best actor win is overdue, if not plausible, since he and Murphy won counterpart awards for comedic and dramatic acting at the Globes before becoming arguably each other’s biggest competition. for the rest of awards season. .

“Both men have won this award at several awards shows, so I think it’s definitely a two-man race in this category,” Davis said. “Cillian Murphy has come out on top a little bit more than Paul Giamatti, and I think that’s due to the fact that ‘Oppenheimer’ is a big favorite and everything he’s accomplished this year.”

Also competing for the Oscar for best actor are Bradley Cooper, for “Maestro”; Colman Domingo, for “Rustin”; and Jeffrey Wright, for “American Fiction.”

Who will win the Oscar for best actress?

As best actress The race taking place on Sunday is shaping up to be perhaps the most debated Oscar competition this year, with lily gladstone and Emma Stone walking side by side during their respective performances in “Killers of the Flower Moon” and “Poor Things,” each of which was heralded as the gem of those films.

“Just like the actor category, both performances are very different from each other,” Davis said. “Emma Stone’s performance is more physical, a more physical transformation, very outward, very animated… whereas Lily Gladstone’s performance is much calmer. It’s much more internal.”

Both women took home best actress awards at the Golden Globes, in separate comedy and drama categories, before Stone won the Critics Choice Awards and the BAFTAs. Gladstone collected the award at the SAG Awards in a historic victory, becoming the first indigenous actor to receive the award. She would also be the first native american actor who will receive the Oscar in this category if he wins.

“I’m torn. I can’t say it’s between Lily Gladstone and Emma Stone,” Tinubu said. “I thought Lily would take it for a long time, but things have gotten better for Emma too. I loved ‘Poor Things’, it’s my movie of the year, but I think both women are very deserving of it. So, for me, I still It is a disaster.”

“Poor Things” was also Vázquez’s favorite movie of 2023. He described Stone’s performance as “impeccable,” but he still believes Gladstone will take home the best actress award.

“Would I love to see Emma Stone win another Oscar? One hundred percent,” Vázquez said. “Does he deserve another Oscar for this role? Yes, because the physicality of the role, combined with the emotion and also the dialogue that he offers in the movie, is just crazy. From that point of view, I would love to see it.” win it, if Lily Gladstone wasn’t in this race.

“As a woman of color, seeing her be the first indigenous actress to win is incredible, not only for her community but for us as a country,” Vázquez continued. “And I think for her to shine like she did when she’s in a Scorsese movie, and she shares the screen with Leonardo DiCaprio and Robert De Niro, that’s power. That transcends.”

Overall, competition is fierce in this category, as Gladstone and Stone compete for the title against Annette Bening, nominated for “Nyad” along with Sandra Hüller, for “Anatomy of a Fall,” and Carey Mulligan, for “Maestro.”