[ad_1]
Awards Circuit Column: Will SAG Awards winners repeat at the Academy Awards?
Just 30 minutes after final voting for the Screen Actors Guild Awards concluded, I made a last-minute change to my best actress prediction: from Lily Gladstone in “Killers of the Flower Moon” to Emma Stone in “Poor Things.” . Let this be a lesson to you: doubting yourself is rarely a good idea.
Lily Gladstone made history as the first Native American and Indigenous person to win an individual SAG Award for her portrayal of Mollie Burkhart, an Osage woman, in Martin Scorsese’s gripping crime saga. With a Golden Globe for Lead Actress (Drama) and a SAG Award now under her belt, Gladstone’s awards season momentum remains formidable. Historically, only seven artists have failed to win the Oscar after winning the unique combination of Globe and SAG:
- 1995: Lauren Bacall (“The Mirror Has Two Faces”) lost to Juliette Binoche (“The English Patient,” winner for best picture)
- 2001: Russell Crowe (“A Beautiful Mind”) lost to Denzel Washington (“Training Day”)
- 2002: Renée Zellweger (winner of best film for “Chicago”) lost to Nicole Kidman (“The Hours”)
- 2006: Eddie Murphy (“Dreamgirls”) lost to Alan Arkin (“Little Miss Sunshine”)
- 2007: Julie Christie (“Away from Her”) lost to Marion Cotillard (“La Vie en Rose”)
- 2018: Glenn Close (“The Wife”) lost to Olivia Colman (“The Favorite”)
- 2020: Chadwick Boseman (“Ma Rainey’s Black Bottom”) lost to Anthony Hopkins (“The Father”)
Given these odds, Gladstone appears to have a slight advantage over his main rival. This season, Gladstone and Stone have faced each other twice, each scoring a victory: Stone at the Critics Choice Awards and Gladstone at the SAG Awards. It’s interesting to note that CCA does not include any AMPAS voters, while SAG-AFTRA does, making the SAG Awards a potentially more accurate predictor.
Read Varieties Awards circuit for the latest Oscar predictions in all categories.
On the other hand, the best actor category seems easier now, with Cillian Murphy’s portrayal of the father of the atomic bomb in “Oppenheimer” edging out Paul Giamatti’s moving performance in “The Holdovers.” Murphy, with Golden Globe, BAFTA and SAG awards, is well positioned to win his first Oscar. Historical trends favor actors playing real-life characters, further boosting Murphy’s chances.
The supporting actress category is all but decided, with Da’Vine Joy Randolph’s performance in “The Holdovers” sweeping awards season and giving Alexander Payne’s comedy-drama a spot among the winners.
©Warner Bros/Courtesy Everett Collection
The path for “Barbie” to earn some of its eight Oscar nominations is narrowing considerably. Winning very few guild awards and no SAG ensemble award, her Oscar night is likely to mirror “A Star is Born” (2018) with just one original song statuette. Coincidentally, “A Star is Born” also had the same number of nominations, was also a Warner Bros. film, and was surprisingly snubbed for its actor-turned-director.
“Oppenheimer” is about to join an exclusive club of best picture winners with awards for both actor and supporting actor, a feat not achieved since 1959’s “Ben-Hur.” An impressive 17 out of 95 Best Picture winners have taken home two or more acting awards.
- “Gone with the Wind” (1939) – Vivien Leigh, Hattie McDaniel
- “Mrs. Miniver” (1942) – Greer Garson, Teresa Wright
- “Going My Way” (1944) – Bing Crosby, Barry Fitgerald
- “It Happened One Night” (1934) – Clark Gable, Claudette Colbert
- “The Best Years of Our Lives” (1946) – Fredric March, Harold Russell
- “All the King’s Men” (1949) – Broderick Crawford, Mercedes McCambridge
- “From Here to Eternity” (1953) – Frank Sinatra, Donna Reed
- “On the Boardwalk” (1954) – Marlon Brando, Eva Marie Saint
- “Ben-Hur” (1959) – Charlton Heston, Hugh Griffith
- “West Side Story” (1961) – George Chakiris, Rita Moreno
- “One Flew Over the Cuckoo’s Nest” (1975) – Jack Nicholson, Louise Fletcher
- “Kramer vs. Kramer” (1979) – Dustin Hoffman, Meryl Streep
- “Terms of Endearment” (1983) – Shirley MacLaine, Jack Nicholson
- “The Silence of the Lambs” (1991) – Anthony Hopkins, Jodie Foster
- “Shakespeare in Love” (1998) – Gwyneth Paltrow, Judi Dench
- “The Million Dollar Baby” (2004) – Hilary Swank, Morgan Freeman
- “Everything, everywhere, at once” (2022) – Michelle Yeoh, Ke Huy Quan, Jamie Lee Curtis
Notably, “Oppenheimer” is on track to dominate the Oscars, potentially scooping up to 10 awards, which would tie it as the second-most awarded film in the history of the ceremony, along with the iconic “West Side Story” and behind “ Ben Hur”. “, “Titanic” and “The Lord of the Rings: The Return of the King.”
With a likely win ahead at the Producers Guild of America Awards, Universal Pictures’ box office drama looks set to be the first televised, guild-winning awards show win since “Argo” (2012), the only film to do so since the best movie of 2009. enlarged image. And let’s not forget that the final Oscar voting is still open.