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Michael Voepel, ESPN.com
There won’t be a rematch of the women’s college basketball national championship game in 2024, but LSU vs. Iowa could be a blockbuster in an Elite Eight matchup. If they both go that far, that is.
Who are the winners and losers of the NCAA women’s tournament? We start on the losing side, and it starts with the last two teams standing in 2023. Neither of them will make it to Cleveland. In fact, neither of them may be there.
The Albany 2 Regional has three teams that many could have picked to make the Final Four before the bracket was revealed: defending national champion LSU, national runner-up Iowa and UCLA.
Who thought it was a good idea? Apparently, the NCAA selection committee, which decided to put that trio together, along with No. 4 seed Kansas State.
As ESPN analyst Rebecca Lobo said, South Carolina, the No. 1 overall seed in the tournament and the No. 1 seed in the Albany 1 Regional, won (and received) what appears to be the so-called “easiest” regional group. Iowa, ranked first for the first time since 1992, should have gotten the second-easiest corner of the group, but instead got the toughest.
The Big Ten tournament champion Hawkeyes, SEC tournament runner-up LSU and Pac-12 semifinalist UCLA were all in the top four in the Associated Press preseason poll and are now in the top eight. Of course, poll rankings are one thing and NCAA tournament placement another. Still, it’s a surprise to see them all together.
“At first, I thought, ‘Oh, this is a really, really tough region,'” LSU coach Kim Mulkey said of her first reaction to the group.
Let’s take a deeper look at the winners and losers of the women’s bracket, and what the road ahead will look like for undefeated South Carolina and Caitlin Clark and Iowa.
Winners
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South Carolina Gamecocks
Two-time national champion South Carolina is in the Albany 1 Regional along with No. 2 Notre Dame, No. 3 Oregon State and No. 4 Indiana. The Irish are the ACC tournament champions and are playing well, but the Gamecocks have the advantage of having faced them already this season. That was in November in Paris (a 29-point Gamecock win) and since then both teams have grown a lot.
The Gamecocks have been so good that they would probably be “winners” regardless of their pool matchups. But coach Dawn Staley should be pleased with the path ahead for her team.
Center Kamilla Cardoso will miss South Carolina’s opener against winner Presbyterian-Sacred Heart after her expulsion for fighting in the SEC tournament final. That will have little importance in that game. But the Gamecocks will be glad to have it on their backs against the winner of the North Carolina-Michigan State matchup, 8-9.
If the Gamecocks make it to the Sweet 16 (they last fell in the second round in 2013), they could face a No. 4 Indiana team that hopes to be much healthier since its quarterfinal loss in the Big Ten tournament.
If there is an Elite Eight matchup between South Carolina and Notre Dame, we will see two of the best freshmen in the country: MiLaysia Fulwiley of the Gamecocks and Hannah Hidalgo of the Irish. But South Carolina’s interior presence and depth should carry the Gamecocks all the way to Cleveland.
ivy league
The conference had two teams in the field: Ivy Madness champion Princeton and runner-up Columbia. It’s just the second time two Ivy teams have made the field (Penn and Princeton advanced in 2016).
The Tigers and Lions finished 13-1 in league play, and Columbia handed Princeton its only league loss, 67-65 on February 25 in New York.
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USC Trojans
Not since 1986, the final year of Trojans legend Cheryl Miller, had the program taken the top spot until Sunday. USC, the top seed in the Portland 3 Regional, has had a great season, thanks in large part to JuJu Watkins, the top freshman in a stellar rookie class. But as the Trojans showed by winning the Pac-12 tournament final as Stanford focused on shutting down Watkins, there’s more to USC than just its young superstar.
The Trojans have waited a long time (since 1994) to host the early rounds of the NCAA tournament again, so that’s exciting for USC as well.
USC appears to have a good path to the Elite Eight, where an epic showdown with Paige Bueckers and No. 3 seed UConn, by far the most decorated team in this corner of the bracket, could await.
Texas Longhorns
The Big 12 tournament champion earned its first No. 1 ranking since 2004. The Longhorns, like fellow Iowans, did not. 1, did not win their conference regular season title, but they did win the league tournament.
After losing star guard Rori Harmon for the season in late December due to a knee injury, Texas had to navigate the Big 12 without her. They lost twice to Baylor, Kansas State and regular-season champion Oklahoma. In the Big 12 tournament, the Longhorns beat Kansas, K-State and Iowa State, and freshman Madison Booker earned MVP honors.
Texas has reached the Elite Eight twice since Vic Schaefer took over as coach in 2020-21. After the Big 12 final, he said he thought the Longhorns had proven they deserved the top spot. The committee agreed.
“When you win a championship in a league, you play the schedule these kids have played, I don’t know what else we could do,” Schaefer said. “I feel very confident in this team. They have done nothing but show me that they can do it.
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UConn Huskies and Tennessee Lady Vols
Both teams could make a splash in the group. UConn ran the table in the Big East this season. The Huskies could be motivated by a potential rematch matchup with Ohio State in the Sweet 16, as the Buckeyes eliminated UConn from the tournament in that round last year.
Tennessee, the No. 6 seed from the Portland Regional 4, comes into the NCAA Tournament smarting from a last-second loss to South Carolina in the SEC semifinals. But the Lady Vols know from the way they’ve played against the Gamecocks that they can compete with anyone.
Tennessee’s potential path to the Sweet 16, which would likely involve a win at third-ranked NC State in the second round, is not easy. But the Lady Vols have a chance.
Losers
Iowa Hawkeye
Last season, Stanford, the No. 1 seed in the Iowa regional, was eliminated in the second round by Ole Miss. The Rebels were subsequently defeated by Louisville, which then fell to Iowa in the Elite Eight.
It wasn’t an easy road to the Final Four for the Hawkeyes in 2023, but it looks easier in retrospect than what they might face this season at Albany 2.
The potential difficulty begins in the second round. The Hawkeyes, who should have no trouble in their opener against the winner of Holy Cross-UT Martin, would next face the 8-9 winner of West Virginia-Princeton.
Last year, Georgia’s ability to defend Iowa resulted in a harrowing second-round victory for the Hawkeyes. It could be similar if they face West Virginia, which leads the Big 12 in steals. Against Princeton, Iowa would face a program that defeated Kentucky two years ago.
If the top spots hold, Iowa will have a third meeting this season against Kansas State; The teams played twice in November, with the Wildcats winning the first and the Hawkeyes the second. Center Ayoka Lee provides the interior muscle for a K-State team that pushed Texas to the Big 12 semifinals.
If Iowa makes it to the Elite Eight against No. 2 UCLA or No. 3 LSU, one of the biggest issues will be how the Hawkeyes combat the interior size of both teams.
UCLA Bruins
Location-wise, the Bruins wouldn’t mind trading spots with Pac-12 rivals Stanford at Portland 4 or USC at Portland 3. But it didn’t work out that way after UCLA fell to the Trojans in the semifinals of the Pac-12 tournament. . The Pac-12, in its final season as we know it, has three teams in the top two seeds for the first time in conference history. UCLA appears to have the toughest path of the three.
The Bruins won an AIAW championship in 1978. But it’s fair to say that UCLA is the best program to never reach the Women’s Final Four in the NCAA era, which began in 1982. For parts of this season, the Bruins seemed to have a great opportunity to make that breakthrough in 2024. We’re not ruling them out, especially with a fifth-year senior leader in Charisma Osborne and a stellar sophomore class that includes 6-foot-7 Lauren Betts.
But being in this regional makes it more difficult for the Bruins. If the seeding holds, they would have to go through LSU and Iowa back-to-back, two very different types of teams. Can UCLA do it? Yes, but it is a real challenge.
LSU Tigers
The defending champions, the third-place finisher in Albany 2, also fit among the underdogs in our group. However, their path doesn’t seem as difficult as Iowa or UCLA. For three reasons: One, they have already played the best team in the country, South Carolina, twice. The Tigers lost their SEC regular-season and tournament matchups against the Gamecocks, but hung in there with them both times. Second, LSU won the NCAA title last season, beating Iowa in the finals, so the Tigers should head into this regional with confidence. Thirdly, Mulkey already has four national championships as a coach. This is his time of year.
Miami Hurricanes
Last year, the Hurricanes were one of the biggest stories of March on the women’s side. As a No. 9 seed, they beat No. 8 Oklahoma State, No. 1 Indiana and No. 4 Villanova to reach the Elite Eight, where they lost to eventual national champion LSU.
But last year’s allure didn’t carry over to Miami until 2024. The Hurricanes went 19-12 overall, but went 8-10 in the ACC. Wins over NCAA tournament teams NC State, Duke and North Carolina were not enough to offset some of Miami’s losses.